[Magic]

[Deadlock]

[bitCON]

mitu % kasvab 2011 aastal kulla hind (eurodes)? keegi tahab bettida mingi väikse summa peale vms ?

[SurfData]

[bitCON]

[Magic]

[DeadZed]

Te ei kirjuta siin reaalsest elust .. nagu enamus inimesi ..
kedagi ei huvita mis, kui palju ja millal teil tõuseb ja seda tõendavad graafikud
Eesti-Vene idapiiril on mitme-tunnised ootekorrad
salakytuse vedamine on peaaegu olematu.

Keegi peaks kirjeldama protsessi kuidas venemaalt bensiini odavamalt saab

[Magic]

[MatchMaker]

China preparing for armed conflict 'in every direction'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8229789/China-preparing-for-armed-conflict-in-every-direction.html

Hiina ülemvõimu järjest reaalsemaks muutumine maailmas.

[Ho Ho]

[SurfData]

[Ho Ho]

Eks raske on kindlasti ka neil endil kuid siseturg peaks neil parasjagu suur olema. Lisaks veel ka see, et kui muul maailmal kehvasti läheb siis pigem just hakatakse veelgi enam importima odavamat kraami hiinast. Muidugi kui päris koopainimese tasemele kukuvad siis jah pole enam miskit teha

[Magic]

Enamus hiina tehnikast on muutunud juba päris lollikindlaks - nad on räigelt vanu litsentse ostnud ja nüüd täiustavad neid... siseturul ei sega ka patendivaidlused eriti.
Näiteks suur mootoritootja Cummins omab seal tehast - siinkandis jällegi hinnatakse seda vanema tüübi mootorit rohkem, kui seda uut. Lollikindlab - ajalooliselt testitud, küll janusem.
Elektriskeemid neil ka lihtsamad, kuigi kompaktsuses kaotavad st. kiires maailmas ei pruugi vaid hind oluline olla - loeb ka see, et iga loll suudaks katki läinud jupi uuega asendada.
Selles osas on ikka Itaalia väga tasemel - Hispaania on pigem Hiina tasemel või jääb juba natuke alla.
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Hiina sisuliselt teeb Jaapanit, aga nende rahvaarv annab sellele topelt võimenduse.
Lisaks jääb mulje, et kui asjadega minnakse rahumeelset teed, siis kosmoses tuleb küll võidujooks.

[tahanteada]

Magic: Nojah - aga ära seda ära unusta, et need Hiinas asuvad tehased, mida maailmale näidatakse - on tegelikult pinnapealne "vaht".
Tegelik masstootmine toimub hoopis kusagil suvalistes Hiina X-alltöövõtu-tehastes, kus a 12-14 aastased plikad-poisid "kopikate" eest tooteid toodavad, mida maailmas ulmeliste hindadega müüakse.

Sel aastal oli üks suurem skandaal Applega, kes just sellega vahele jäi, et kõikvõimalik hüper-kallis Apple-kraam ei tule mitte reklaamitud Hiina-supertehastest, vaid hoopis odavatest alltöövõtutehastest, kus lapstööjõud lasevad kätel usinasti käia.

[MatchMaker]

Next Year's Wars
The 16 brewing conflicts to watch for in 2011.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/12/28/next_years_wars?page=full



Sinna hulka võiks vist lisada veel mõne nime aga eks näis.

[Tanel]

Kivisüsi


Vask

[Ho Ho]

Mnjaa, nafta kasutuse ~2.6x ning vase ~4x tõus viimase 10a jooksul Hiinas. Huvitav kui palju sellest on pandud uute tehaste üles ehituseks ja tootmise kasvatamiseks. Kui tegu on puhtalt otse lõpptoodangusse mineva toorainega siis see veel nii väga hirmutav poleksi. Kui aga nad selle arvelt oma tööstust veelgi suuremaks teevad siis tasub muul maailmal ikka üsna tugevasti kartma hakata

[Magic]

[2korda2]

[MatchMaker]

See kuulub kindlasti tuleviku juurde.
Have scientists discovered how to create downpours in the desert?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1343470/Have-scientists-discovered-create-downpours-desert.html#ixzz1A45SZDAl

[DeadZed]

[vull]

[Scart]

link :: kae siit

Denniger calls it. Niimoodi jätkates ei näe USA sellisel kujul jõule aastal 2012.

[Magic]

[SurfData]

[bitCON]

Obama arvamus 2006 aastal riigi võlalimiidi suurendamisest:

"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies. … Increasing America’s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that ‘the buck stops here. Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/whose-line-it

ja nüüd vabariiklased said pukki lubadustega riigivõlga vähendada jne jne ja nüüd John "Boner" juba räägib et kindlasti tuleb võlalimiiti suurendada

LOL AMEERIKA

[Magic]

Asi lõpetatakse hüperinflatsioonis.
Nüüd oleks ka Eesti riigil viimane aeg hakata laenama - nüüd kindlasti tuleb ja paneb mulle keegi selle eest vastu pead
Mõtlen muidugi selliseid laene, mis jätaks raha enamuses Eestisse....
Et mis juttu ma nüüd räägin ja varem nagu arvasin teist asja - point on selles, et ma lootsin, et valitakse ikka teine tee kui laenude suurendamine.
See, et paar EL'i suurt panka põhja lasta poleks tavakodanikule veel midagi teinud....
Ma arvan, et aega on kusagil 1-2 aastat - siis on juba selge, et raha print ei tee midagi paremaks.
Näiliselt hoiab see küll majandust käimas, aga see pigem teema, et kas lõputu õudus või õudne lõpp.

Kuigi jah, kui eeldada et mul oleks miljon laenu ja mu palk tõuseks kiiremini, kui inflatsioon siis plaksutaks ma raha printimise peale käsi

Seega vähemalt mulle jääb mulje, et hetkel käib hämaras toolimäng ja keegi veel põrandale ei prantsata, aga kui saabub pimedus...

[bitCON]

[Tanel]

Üha kallinev nafta ähvardab kriisist taastumist pärssida

[Magic]

[bitCON]

eur/usd=1 aastal 2011? paistab küll sedamoodi minevat

[Tanel]

Nitrub, hetkeseisuga siiski mitte

EUR / USD

link

[Magic]

Minu graafik jookseb alla
Kuigi jah...täpselt toetuspunktil on hetkel.

Mulle meeldib nafta rohkem - seal mul õlleraha käes. Tore, et ka minisummadega saab mängida ja eriti tore, kui algsumma tasuta antakse.
Samas on see võimendusinstument, nii et kujutame ette millist kurja on võimalik tekitada sellega suurema vaba raha korral - tegelikult teenisid teatud firmad väga kõvad kasumid kui lükkasid 2008 alguses mulli veelgi kiiremini veerema.
Kusagil oli ka mingi jutt, et panustati ~100 miljonit võimendusega - reaalselt siis kusagil 1-2 miljardit. Kui pall veerema saadi ja ebakindlus aina kasvas hakati vaikselt positsioone likvideerima.
Midagi vist nüüd muudeti kas börsireeglites, aga arvestades kui palju lahedat kraami on alles, siis...

Keegi võiks pigem otsida, kas Eesti Pangale jääb üldse mingi otsustusõigus reservide määramise osas?
Selles suhtes, et mida rohkem ma uurin seda debiilsem see 2% tundub - meil on ka mingi garantii eraldi, aga see tähendab, et kui Rootslased meil vaiba alt tõmbavad, siis plekime ise siinsete pankade aitamise kinni.
-----------------------------------------
~40 miljardit ju vabaneb... samas sellega ilmselt likvideeritakse kohaliku filiaali võlgu emapanga ees. Sisuliselt rändab see raha siit kibekiiresti välja.

[2korda2]

Buffet on võimenduse kohta korduvalt kenasti öelnud:
"Leverage is the only way a smart guy can go broke."
"When you combine ignorance and leverage, you get some pretty interesting results. "
Siinsamas teemas võtsin 2008 lõpus sõna, kus mainisin, et vaatamata teemas (ja maailma ajakirjanduses) valitsenud doom and gloom meeleolule on õige aeg üle vaadata investeerimisvõimalused. Tegin 2008 detsembris esimese sissemakse. Dietzi meetodil arvutatuna on portfelli tootlus olnud:
2009 - +53%
2010 - +124%.
Seejuures ei kasutanud kordagi võimendust. Kahe väikese lühiajalise erandiga olen ostnud ainult korraliku bilansiga turuliidreid. Hetkel portfellis vaid 1 ettevõte, mis pole dividende maksnud.

Eesti pank ei otsusta reservimäärade üle (see raha on juba olulises osas välja rännanud). Me ei pea mingil moel hakkama Rootsi panku päästma. Küll võivad teoreetiliselt täitmisele minna riikide päästmise paketi tagatised (ma olen suhteliselt pesiimistlik selle võimaluse realiseerumise osas aga noh...)

[Magic]

Sisuliselt ei õigusta, siis Eesti pank enam kuidagi enda kõrget palgataset ja pole ime, et andekamad on sealt jalga lasknud.
Nüüd veel see reisimise hange
--------------------------------------------

[Scart]

link :: kae siit

Confirmed: We’re Literally On the Brink of Catastrophic Collapse

Turbo-Timmy ütles ka lõpuks tõe välja. Eks ta pidigi, ta on ju ainus alles jäänud majandusmees Nobama administratsioonis

[Tanel]

Postitan selle USA Rahandusministri avaliku kirja ka siia täies mahus.
Allikas: http://www.treasury.gov/connect/blog/Pages/letter.aspx

[Scart]

link :: kae siit

Vana uudis aga siiski väga tähtis uudis


The Nissan Leaf just beat 40 other vehicles to be named Europe’s 2011 “car of the year.”

The slick electric car received the award today from a jury of 57 automotive journalists from 23 countries. Everyone was quick to note this is the first time the award has gone to an electric car, but then, it’s the first time an affordable, mass-market electric car has been available.

“The jury acknowledged today that the Nissan Leaf is a breakthrough for electric cars,” said Hakan Matson, jury president. “Nissan Leaf is the first EV that can match conventional cars in many respects.”

He isn’t kidding. We’ve been driving a Nissan Leaf since Wednesday and have been impressed by its performance, range and utility. We’ll have a full review soon, but the bottom line is the Leaf is more than an impressive electric car. It’s an impressive car.
---

The Massachusetts Supreme Court just dealt a negative ruling to the banks in the closely-followed Ibanez case, which challenged securitization standards. It's pretty straightforward: The banks didn't have the proper parwork to foreclose, says the court. Hence, no legitimate foreclosure.

Ventilaator kattus pruuniga.

[MatchMaker]

Kaks huvitavat artiklit Financial Timesist

Trade war looming, warns Brazil

Spoiler

Brazil has warned that the world is on course for a full-blown “trade war” as it stepped up its rhetoric against exchange rate manipulation as a form of veiled export subsidy.

Guido Mantega, finance minister, said Brazil was preparing measures to prevent further appreciation of its currency, the real, and would raise the issue of exchange rate manipulation at the World Trade Organisation and other global bodies.

The US and China were among the worst offenders, he said. “This is a currency war that’s turning into a trade war.”

Mr Mantega’s comments follow interventions in currency markets by Brazil, Chile and Peru last week and sharp rises in the Australian dollar, Swiss franc and other currencies.

The actions have renewed interest in how to manage destabilising flows of speculative money, with the IMF suggesting last week that the world needed rules to govern the use of capital controls.

Mr Mantega in September launched controls on foreign portfolio investments in Brazil aimed at stemming a 39 per cent rise in the real against the dollar in the past two years.

He said most of Brazil’s measures last year were directed at the spot market but the focus had switched to the futures markets, which he said were now behind the upward pressure on the currency.

Following Thursday’s surprise measure to curb short selling of the dollar against the real by onshore banks, he said: “You can expect more measures on the futures market.”

However, analysts said China would be expected to veto any attempt to change WTO rules to incorporate exchange rates.

Mr Mantega said Brazil’s trade with the US had slipped from an annual surplus of about $15bn in Brazil’s favour to a deficit of $6bn since quantitative easing in the US. He said China’s overvalued currency was also distorting world trade. “We have excellent trade relations with China ... But there are some problems as China is a big competitor in manufactured goods.  . . . Of course we would like to see a revaluation of the renminbi.”

He said that even if the US began to recover and to tighten its monetary policy, the real would be unlikely to weaken.

“As the situation in the US improves, there will be less risk in the global economy so investors will become more daring,” he said, adding they would seek greater returns in high-growth markets.

“The weak dollar is not only a question of liquidity, it’s also about risk aversion.”

Tensions rise in currency wars

Spoiler

If the world’s shell-shocked investors thought that 2011 might see an outbreak of peace in the currency wars, they were sadly mistaken. Not only did Brazil last week take more action to stem the rise in the real but Chile, one of the most free-market of emerging economies, has also unveiled a campaign of intervention against its currency.

With a sense that the battles against destabilising capital inflows are here to stay has come a determination to set new rules of engagement on controlling them. But given the uncertainty and political explosiveness around the issue, any such venture faces a tough future.

The International Monetary Fund last week revealed an attempt to put itself at the centre of the debate, releasing a study arguing for global rules to constrain governments’ use of capital controls. But observers doubt that it will broker a deal soon. “The IMF has made a pre-emptive grab for power without a clear idea of what it is asking for,” says Eswar Prasad, a former senior IMF official now at Cornell University.

The case for global rules is that one country’s actions can spill over to others. Last year’s rash of direct currency market intervention to slow speculative capital inflows, for example, proved self-perpetuating as country after country rushed to stop its own exchange rate being the only one to rise.

But as the IMF itself admits, the issue is complex. Aside from direct currency intervention, measures range from inflow controls, such as a requirement that Chile once had for investors to post interest-free deposits at the central bank, to banking regulations such as Brazil’s decision to raise reserve requirements on foreign exchange positions, to emergency blocks on investors taking money out of the country in a crisis.

And while many economists have coalesced around the view that short-term inflow controls are a legitimate tool to prevent destabilising capital movements, views on their efficacy are varied – and have shifted over the past decade.

During the 1990s, enthusiasm for free markets led the US Treasury and the IMF’s management to try to amend the fund’s mandate, proposing changes to its articles of association to promote capital account liberalisation. The effort foundered on opposition from emerging market countries, and the currency collapses of the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis convinced many of the dangers of a sudden reversal of speculative capital flows.

A pivotal moment came in 1998 when Mahathir Mohamad, then Malaysia’s prime minister, imposed controls on capital outflows to spare the ringgit the fate of other south-east Asian currencies. The action’s effectiveness has been disputed, since it came as the regional crisis was abating.

Some said at the time that Malaysia was shutting the stable door just as the horse was trying to get back in. But a lack of apparent ill-effects from Mr Mahathir’s action caused a rethink about controls and particularly about measures such as Chile’s, designed to encourage longer-term flows, such as foreign direct investment, and discourage short-term “hot money”.

Subsequent research led by Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University academic who did a stint as the IMF’s chief economist, showed the benefits of capital account liberalisation to emerging market economies were, at best, unproven.

“These are very tough intellectual questions to which there are no crisp answers but there is a good case for emerging markets to limit inflows now to prevent a crisis in four or five years’ time,” Professor Rogoff says.

Yet while the academic centre of gravity has shifted, sometimes policy has been slower to move. The US for example, targeted even Chile’s light-touch controls in negotiations over a bilateral trade deal and continues to try to write strict limits on capital controls into such pacts.

“This is the legacy of a quasi-ideological position which wrongly equates free trade with liberalisation of the capital account,” says Jagdish Bhagwati, a leading trade economist from Columbia University, who has consistently criticised US policy in this area.

The IMF and many economists urge governments to try other means first, such as tighter fiscal policy and allowing the exchange rate to rise, before resorting to direct action. Even then, Prof Rogoff says, countries should choose more subtle interventions such as banking regulation rather than quantitative controls on outflows.

“Clearly capital flows can be used as an excuse, as they are in China and India, for financial repression – to protect domestic financial services sectors from competition and retard their development,” he says.

While the IMF may have brought the capital controls debate out into the open, it is unlikely to come to a neat and rapid conclusion.

[Magic]

Nafta uuesti 91+... kevadeks siis 100?

[Maldur]

Lisan siia teile uudise Prantsusmaalt - http://www.france24.com/en/20110112-frances-alstom-ink-power-plant-deal-with-estonia
Niisiis 950 miljonit eurot hakkab omanikku vahetama ja seda nii vaikselt et Eesti meedia sellest (seni) ei kõssagi, rääkimata EE'st või Alstom'ist.
Saab näha millal seltsimehed teada annavad järgmistest maksudest - ega siis konnasööjad muidu ei ehita.
Ehitataks Narva, kokku 2 energiablokki kokku 600MW ja kivisöele.

[fallout3]

See, et riik EE-le 600MW suuruses uute energiaplokkide ehitamiseks raha annab, ei ole ju mingisugune pommuudis. Raha peaks tulema CO2-kvootide müümisest. Viimati arutles keegi selle üle siin artiklis: http://www.e24.ee/?id=370103
Aga lepingute sõlmimised ettevõtete vahel toimuvadki tavaliselt vaikselt, või ei?

[Maldur]

Tänud lingi eest.
Tsiteerin:"Miljard eurot on Eesti mõõtkavas ülisuur investeering, suurusjärku arvestades lausa gigainvesteering."
Ma saan aru kui EE riigihanke korras omale tualettpaberit ostab - vaikselt... Aga nn gigainesteeringut teha ilma et kasvõi kodukal oleks mingi uudisnupuke selle kohta, ma ei tea.

Kõik ei jõua kõiki uudised, artikleid lugeda, sestap kirjutasin. Pealegi, kui Prantsuse TV seda kavatsust tutvustab eetris, aga Eesti on vait kui sukk (sest hr Kolgi lugu on arvamus, mitte ettevõtja teadaanne), pidades oma kodanikke viimasteks saabasteks kellele polegi muud vaja teatada kui seda et EE sai võimaluse osta 30rulli perforeeritud tualettpaberit tänu hankele väga soodsalt.

[londiste]

.

[fallout3]

EE kodulehel on vastav info olemas.
https://www.energia.ee/et/investor/start/-/asset_publisher/zF12/content/modalwindow/345220

[Scart]

[Ho Ho]

[Scart]

[Maldur]

[ihvike]

Oli ju küll see uudis igal pool, ise magasite maha.

Detsembris http://www.e24.ee/?id=360785 Tänane on juba formaalsus. Ja samuti juba uudisena üleval.