[Ho Ho]

[Tanel]

[Scart]

[Tanel]

[Ho Ho]

[Scart]

[Zajats]

Ärevad ajad:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2623#more

Hormuzi väina tipus möllab taifuun. Kas USA ründab Iraani kui neemetipp on puhtaks pühitud? On see HAARP-i uus katsetus?

[Scart]

link :: kae siit

kukkusid uhama!

[namstoop]

[alec]

[Scart]

lahendus (vähemalt ajutine) on massitransiit. bussid neelavad 30l sajale aga viivad kohale 50 inimest, rongide efektiivsusest parem ei räägi.

edit: teadjamad räägivad, et orkaan võib korralikult sealse niigi madala merepõhja segi keerata... eks näis.

[Zajats]

Homme uued bensuhinnad? Kas see suvi tuleb 20.- ka ära ja siis 30.-.....

[Oliverk]

Homme bensu pole Lätli mustlased viisid ära.

[Scart]

link :: kae siit

Omaanis pidi olema tõsine uputus, lingi täitsa lõpus on vägevad pildid

Pildid!

At a Brazilian ethanol conference June 4-5, Brazilian government-funded researchers said they have perfected a method of producing cellulosic ethanol that drastically reduces the cost of processing. At this point, the assertion -- and many other similarly optimistic claims made at the conference -- is unconfirmed. But should it prove true, the world could well be peeking over the horizon at a massive geopolitical, not to mention economic, shift. siin

Niimoodi elatakse siis ameerikan driimi

MIS TOIMUB UUDISTEGA? Terve see nädal on olnud täielik kuradi vaikus, tsüklon magati täiesti maha ja nüüd see:

Fierce battles rage Thursday between the Turkish army and Kurdish PKK rebels on both sides of Turkish-Iraqi border. A Turkish Black Hawk shot down over Iraq. Heavy casualties are reported on both sides. Turkish tanks have also been hit. The PKK Kurdish Workers Party turns out to have been ready for the major Turkish operation, well-armed with anti-tank and shoulder-borne missiles for shooting down Turkish warplanes and helicopters.

An expert on Turkey at the Washington Institute for Near East policy, Soner Cagaptay, is quoted by the New York Sun as estimating there are now 250,000 soldiers massed at the Qandil mountain range on the border with northern Iraq, including heavy artillery and tanks. An Iraqi official cited 100,000.

[Zajats]

Paris Hiltoni uudiseid on ju palju põnevam lugeda... Astuge edasi, pole siin midagi vaadata.....
Tankerite puudumine ilmneb reaalselt paari nädala pärast. Siis jäävad mõned ilma ehk lendab kaka ventilaatorisse... Nüüd saab selgeks kui pingul ikkagi naftaturg on. Võibolla elatakse reservidega see jõnksakas üle ja pole midagi hullu. TOD foorumis analüüsiti see läbi ja tundub et on reaalne isegi....

[Scart]

link :: kae siit

veel pilte. kohalikud pajatavad katastroofilisest hävingust - eks näis.

[marti252]

See on tõesti hämmastav, kuias suudetakse uudiseid maha suruda! See orkaan, mis vahepeal oli isegi kategooria 5, ületas vaevaliselt uudisekünnise.

[Le Inc]

Ära ei tasu unustada fakti et väga palju on juba loodud väärtusi iseenestest olemas (näiteks generaatorid vms.). Nende kasutusele võtmine ei tohiks enam erilisis lisakulutusi tekitada ... Kindlasti kogu maailma pilt muutub kui nafta peaks 2..3x kallinema ent siiski vaevalt et maailmalõpp sellest tuleks.

Ilmselt peab odava energiaallika puudumisel rohkem inimesi põllumajandusse suunduma et linnastunud rahvast ära toita. Olukord kus 1 talumees suudab (suutis ) paar tuhat suud ära toita muutub heaks muinasjutuks ... (mäletate Mäe Andrest ja Oru Pearut? Kui vähe jäi kraami kätte ja kui palju pidi selleks töökäis "palkama"). Ahjaa siis pole ka nii palju aega arvuti taga klõbistamiseks (selleks ju vaja elektrit!).

[Scart]

[matrix]

Üks päev luges raadios 140 aastat tagasi kirjutatud Postimehe juhtkirja, kus papa Jansen kutsus üles inimesi rohkem elektrit tarbima, kuna süsi ja puit pidavat kohe otsa saama.
Ei midagi uut siin päikese all, ainult see vahe, et sütt ja puitu on endiselt lademetes, aga elekter kipub kalliks kätte ära minema. Ja karta on, et 140 aasta pärast naerdakse ka neid sama moodi, kes täna ennustavad nafta kohest lõppemist.

[Tanel]

matrix, sa siis väidad, et mitmetes ametlikes allikates toodud faktid on valed ja need riigid, kes on naftaeksportijatest muutunud naftaimportijateks, on kõik lihtsalt ettenägelikud, et nad oma varusid teistele riikidele ära ei müü?

[XYZ]

[Tanel]

XYZ, seda ma tean jah, aga muud riigid?
Ja pealegi USA puhul rohkem tegemist vist Oil Sands tüüpi ressurssidega, mille tootmine muutub rentaabliks alles siis kui barrel üle $100 maksab

[namstoop]

[Xayqo]

Eriti irooniliselt seisab Taneli nime all üleskutse kardisõidule
See ei ole algatus vaielda, lihtsalt sattusin selle teema lõppu lugema.
Olen mõelnud, palju me maailmas kütust kokku hoiaks, kui poleks motosporti?

[stepzter]

[Scart]

[Tanel]

[Zajats]

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Mogambo/DREssays/MG060607.html

Väidetavalt toimus eelmine samamahukas kulla kokkuost eraisikute poolt enne Rooma Impeeriumi kukkumist. Võibolla pole see midagi, sest tänapäeva usaldusraha on igavene ja poliitikud on nii ausad ning alalhoidlikud et raha juurde ei trüki (USA iga leibkonna kohta võlg on üle 500 000.- $ mis tuleb maksudena sisse nõuda). Kuigi kuld pole enam sadakond aastat rahana kasutusel olnud (pretsedenditu, nagu ka see et derivaatide turg on ca 7 maailma SKP-d) on ta ikkagi lähim, mille peale taanduda kui elektrooniline (ajaloos oli raha tekitamise piiranguks trükimasinate kiirus) peaks otsad andma. Mitte et ma selle juhtumist pikisilmi ootaks, vaid see on minu meelest reaalne stsenaarium, mida võiks oma elutegevuses arvestada. Ma ei usu et toimub inimkonna väljasuremine või ülemaailmne sõda. Mina arvan et pigem sotsaja ülemineku taoline periood kus kogu maailm mõtleb enda elu ja tegemiste üle järgi ja muutub looduse/omasuguste suhtes arvestavamaks, sallivamaks ning alandlikumaks (vähem ülbemaks).

Kas inimkond on targem kui pärm? Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ

[Xayqo]

Tanelile ja endast:
Rattamatkadel käin tavaliselt sõpradega, seega jääb HV matk ära. Elan ühiselamus, mis on eriti kütust kokkuhoidev ja keskkonda säästev, pole vaja isegi ühistranspordiga sõita, et igapäev koolis käia + sõidan linnas trolliga. Mitte et uhkustada, aga rohkem minumoodi liikuvaid inimesi:D

Auto, mis vendadega kolmepeale on ka 1.4L ja 16 klapiga väike Corsa-ökopill.

[matrix]

[marti252]

Avaldan ka siis arvamust, kuidas peaks käituma! Kulutage seda naftat mis kole, siis saab see agoonia kiiremini otsa ja saab edasi minna

[Scart]

[Zajats]

Florida-tegelikult seal juures hakatakse puurima. Ainult Kuuba rannikul. Selle peale pistsid USA naftafirmad karjuma et miks meil ei lubata, nüüd tuleb niikuinii sadakonna miili kaugusele (kaugel see Kuuba rannik on?) puuraugud. Ja seal hakkab Hiina puurima. Point on selles et maailma tarbimine suureneb. Euroopa on sama, Aafrika vähenenud, aga selle vahe on USA ja eriti Hiina/india kuhjaga tagasi teinud. Ma usun et ka Eestis on suuresti tarbimine kasvanud, majanduskasv ju. Kütus on ikkagi üliodav. See väljendub ka rahva rasvumises (ise kaasaarvatud). Mina arvan et kütus peaks olema 50.- liiter või 20 l nädalas per tavakasutaja auto. Enne seda ei muutu mitte midagi. Sõimatakse ja virisetakse, aga tarbimine püsib samana. Mitte et mulle selline elu ei meeldiks. Vägagi meeldib, aga tuleb arvestada et see ei pruugi olla igavene.

[Scart]

link :: kae siit

biokütused? haa haa

[marti252]

link :: Russian Car Sales & Net Oil Exports

Vaat see oli mulle üllatus, et Venemaa naftatoodang on platool ja ennustatakse juba sellel või järgmisel aastal kahekohalist langust. Ja kuigi toodang on viimastel aastatel suurenenud, siis neto eksport on juba aastaid vähenenud sisetarbimise tõttu. Peamine põhjus on see, et aastast 2002 on välismaiste autode müük aastas suurenenud 50%, ehk kahekordistub iga 1,4 aasta järel.

[Scart]

link :: kae siit

Kansase viljasaak on ohus.

[Zajats]

Ehee, "...ja ka see pole veel kõik..." Putin teatas et maailm peab lahti ütlema USD-st kui baasvaluutast ja pakkus asemele ...tadaa.... rubla. Varsti hakkab Euroopa kodanikult, kes on Gaspromi tütarfirma gaasiluti otsas, rublasid küsima. Venelasest võib kõike oodata. Samas on "hea" uudis et Venemaal on suur väljasuremine. Ei mina usu et Venemaa (Putin) saab oma võimu mida ta nii tahab...

[Scart]

link :: kae siit

BEIJING: China is considering halting efforts to make oil from coal because of concerns about cost and energy efficiency, a state press agency on Sunday quoted an official as saying.

China is hoping to ease its rising dependence on imported oil by promoting alternative energy sources like oil-from-coal and solar, wind and nuclear power.

China "may put an end to projects that are designed to produce petroleum by liquefying coal," the official Xinhua press agency said, quoting an official of the country's top economic planning agency.


kas tõesti mõtleb keegi EROEI peale?
----
Vääääääga pikk ja väga sünge jutt siin
----

uh oh

[matrix]

BP on lugemiseks välja pannud oma Statistical Review of World Energy 2007, ehk koerad hauguvad, karavan läheb edasi.

http://www.bp.com/multipleimagesection.do?categoryId=9017892&contentId=7033503

[Scart]

link :: kae siit

USA kah kuivab

[namstoop]

[Scart]

vast mõeldakse selle all jänkistani suurust ja väga suurt kliimaerinevust, mis muutub aina ekstreemsemaks.

[marti252]

link :: Oilwatch Monthly - June 2007

Päris kenake ülevaade

[Scart]

link :: kae siit

tundub, et PO hakkab tõesti massidesse jõudma.

[Max Powers]

[Tanel]

World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists

Scientists challenge major review of global reserves and warn that supplies will start to run out in four years' time
By Daniel Howden
Published: 14 June 2007
Scientists have criticised a major review of the world's remaining oil reserves, warning that the end of oil is coming sooner than governments and oil companies are prepared to admit.

BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, published yesterday, appears to show that the world still has enough "proven" reserves to provide 40 years of consumption at current rates. The assessment, based on officially reported figures, has once again pushed back the estimate of when the world will run dry.

However, scientists led by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, say that global production of oil is set to peak in the next four years before entering a steepening decline which will have massive consequences for the world economy and the way that we live our lives.

According to "peak oil" theory our consumption of oil will catch, then outstrip our discovery of new reserves and we will begin to deplete known reserves.

Colin Campbell, the head of the depletion centre, said: "It's quite a simple theory and one that any beer drinker understands. The glass starts full and ends empty and the faster you drink it the quicker it's gone."

Dr Campbell, is a former chief geologist and vice-president at a string of oil majors including BP, Shell, Fina, Exxon and ChevronTexaco. He explains that the peak of regular oil - the cheap and easy to extract stuff - has already come and gone in 2005. Even when you factor in the more difficult to extract heavy oil, deep sea reserves, polar regions and liquid taken from gas, the peak will come as soon as 2011, he says.

This scenario is flatly denied by BP, whose chief economist Peter Davies has dismissed the arguments of "peak oil" theorists.

"We don't believe there is an absolute resource constraint. When peak oil comes, it is just as likely to come from consumption peaking, perhaps because of climate change policies as from production peaking."

In recent years the once-considerable gap between demand and supply has narrowed. Last year that gap all but disappeared. The consequences of a shortfall would be immense. If consumption begins to exceed production by even the smallest amount, the price of oil could soar above $100 a barrel. A global recession would follow.

Jeremy Leggert, like Dr Campbell, is a geologist-turned conservationist whose book Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis brought "peak oil" theory to a wider audience. He compares industry and government reluctance to face up to the impending end of oil, to climate change denial.

"It reminds me of the way no one would listen for years to scientists warning about global warming," he says. "We were predicting things pretty much exactly as they have played out. Then as now we were wondering what it would take to get people to listen."

In 1999, Britain's oil reserves in the North Sea peaked, but for two years after this became apparent, Mr Leggert claims, it was heresy for anyone in official circles to say so. "Not meeting demand is not an option. In fact, it is an act of treason," he says.

One thing most oil analysts agree on is that depletion of oil fields follows a predictable bell curve. This has not changed since the Shell geologist M King Hubbert made a mathematical model in 1956 to predict what would happen to US petroleum production. The Hubbert Curveshows that at the beginning production from any oil field rises sharply, then reaches a plateau before falling into a terminal decline. His prediction that US production would peak in 1969 was ridiculed by those who claimed it could increase indefinitely. In the event it peaked in 1970 and has been in decline ever since.

In the 1970s Chris Skrebowski was a long-term planner for BP. Today he edits the Petroleum Review and is one of a growing number of industry insiders converting to peak theory. "I was extremely sceptical to start with," he now admits. "We have enough capacity coming online for the next two-and-a-half years. After that the situation deteriorates."

What no one, not even BP, disagrees with is that demand is surging. The rapid growth of China and India matched with the developed world's dependence on oil, mean that a lot more oil will have to come from somewhere. BP's review shows that world demand for oil has grown faster in the past five years than in the second half of the 1990s. Today we consume an average of 85 million barrels daily. According to the most conservative estimates from the International Energy Agency that figure will rise to 113 million barrels by 2030.

Two-thirds of the world's oil reserves lie in the Middle East and increasing demand will have to be met with massive increases in supply from this region.

BP's Statistical Review is the most widely used estimate of world oil reserves but as Dr Campbell points out it is only a summary of highly political estimates supplied by governments and oil companies.

As Dr Campbell explains: "When I was the boss of an oil company I would never tell the truth. It's not part of the game."

A survey of the four countries with the biggest reported reserves - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Kuwait - reveals major concerns. In Kuwait last year, a journalist found documents suggesting the country's real reserves were half of what was reported. Iran this year became the first major oil producer to introduce oil rationing - an indication of the administration's view on which way oil reserves are going.

Sadad al-Huseini knows more about Saudi Arabia's oil reserves than perhaps anyone else. He retired as chief executive of the kingdom's oil corporation two years ago, and his view on how much Saudi production can be increased is sobering. "The problem is that you go from 79 million barrels a day in 2002 to 84.5 million in 2004. You're leaping by two to three million [barrels a day]" each year, he told The New York Times. "That's like a whole new Saudi Arabia every couple of years. It can't be done indefinitely."

[Scart]

[Herr Kurm]

Eks kui nafta hind liiga kõrgeks läheb saavad CERN-i poisid rulli juurde. Vähemalt Indias ehitatakse pebblebed reaktoreid ja ka tooriumjahutusega reaktorid pidid head olema - põletavad ka teiste vanemate reaktorite jääke ja praegustst tuumakütustest pidi ropult kauaks jätkuma sedatüüpi reaktoritega. Ehk siis midagi eriti jubedat ei juhtu a la apokalüpsis aga elu suts raskemaks läheb. Hakka järgmist autot või diislit vaatama et rissot sisse valada kui bensiin liiga kalliks läheb

[Scart]