F1 2017 :: Hinnavaatluse Foorumid

Formula One - 2017 World Drivers Championship Preview

2017-03-26 00:00:00 (This report was created at 2017-03-12 14:26:43)

Formula 1 - 2017 Season Preview

Welcome to the brave new world of Formula 1, 2017 style.

It’s been all change since the end of last season, seismic changes. Out went Bernie Ecclestone, kicked to an empty room upstairs and out of harm’s way. Out went the world champion, Nico Rosberg, who decided he really couldn’t achieve any more than he managed last year. Out went Ron Denis, culled in a shareholder revolt at the floundering McLaren team. Out go the power unit development tokens that have effectively kept Mercedes at the top of the pile for three years. Out go the rubbish ‘show business’ tyres that were so hard to predict.

In comes Liberty Media, confirmed as the new owners of Formula 1 with promises of a different approach than the rather dated model so long used by Ecclestone. In comes a raft of new regulations to make the cars significantly faster, more difficult to drive and better looking. In come big tyres that will not degrade like warm marshmallows and in comes some hope that we may see the end of a one team formula.

We will have a brief look at the teams and their prospects for the year ahead.

Mercedes – Rosberg out! Technical chief Paddy Lowe out! Ex- Ferrari man James Allison in to replace him in March. Their suspension system is under scrutiny after Ferrari enquiry to FIA (along with that used by Red Bull). That is quite a lot of change and Rosberg’s decision to quit came as a real surprise to the team and it put them on the back foot with not a lot of time to get the right talent to replace him. The new driver, former Williams’s driver Valtteri Bottas, will take time to bed in and it will weaken their chances of defending the WCC. Bottas is no mug but it does take time to settle in to a new environment and while I expect him to pleasantly surprise many people, he is at a disadvantage to incumbent driver, Lewis Hamilton.

The new car looked the best of the bunch due to the small ‘shark fin’ at the rear of the car. In the first test it was very fast and very reliable, just like it has been for years. It will still be the car to beat sadly and while Renault in particular will have closed the power gap, Mercedes have also improved their power units and they remain the most powerful on the grid.

The only sign of hope for the chasers is that the car didn’t look entirely convincing on longer runs and on the softer compounds. It seems to suffer from a little understeer which may be a bit of a problem in qualifying when you need good turn in to get the most out of the lap. Qualifying is where Mercedes need to be attacked otherwise it will be another title for them, most likely for Hamilton. Bottas was setting fastest times on the ultra softs but was not gaining much lap time over the super softs. This may have been caused by the softer compounds graining a little and losing performance at the end of the lap. That’s not entirely new for Mercedes, it’s almost like the tyres can’t quite cope with all the grunt the Mercedes PU is putting through them.

The car was looking a little ragged through slow corners on long runs. The power wasn’t going down that well and it was the Ferrari that was the most stable and planted car, both on short and long runs.

Big developments were expected for the second test and we saw something like its Melbourne spec. Big improvements are still expected and with this season being a development war, Mercedes are well placed to do very well again, thanks to their huge resources.

Testing notes: Hamilton 4th fastest, Bottas 3rd. Total miles completed 5102 (1st).

Lewis Hamilton – 11/10

Bottas – 11/2

Mercedes – 2/5

Red Bull – Good continuity of staff at all levels. Red Bull designer, Adrian Newey, is in his element when it comes to exploiting any opportunities when it comes to big regulation changes and he has been more fully engaged with the F1 side of the business than for some time. The switch to more emphasis on aerodynamic performance is music to his ears and as they already had the best chassis at the end of 2016, they should have at the very least a highly competitive chassis for 2017, if not the class of the field.

The power units will still be important, it was ever thus in F1, as the added aerodynamic downforce and wider tyres will make the cars more ‘draggy’ and slower in a straight line. Teams will need a powerful engine to push it down the straights so Renault will have to further improve, which all reports say they are doing and with further upgrades coming on stream for the Spanish GP.

It must be said that it wasn’t all smooth running for the new Renault power units and Red Bull, Renault and Toro Rosso all had problems with them, losing track time as a result. However there is no great sense of panic as Renault are confident that they are fixable in the short term but there has to be a question mark over all Renault powered cars reliability in the early stages of the season.

The team have changed fuel/lubricant supplier from Total to Exxon Mobil, who ended their long partnership with McLaren. A vote of confidence in Red Bull, that and/or a lack of confidence in McLaren Honda? The change was only made in December but reports are that things went well quickly and the partners are very happy with each other and getting to the fine turning stage already. Exxon Mobil has 35 years of F1 experience behind them and is used to all sorts of manufacturers and different engine architectures. Bedding in is a short term risk but inevitably, this partnership will flourish.

The only potential fly in the ointment is that the Renault works team will not be using Exxon Mobil but BP. This means the same power units used by Red Bull, Toro Rosso and Renault will need to be able to work well with two different types of fuel/lubricants which while not unprecedented could be awkward if and when the works team are ever challenging Red Bull for the title. I would imagine the politics and development paths could become very contentious. That however may be a couple of years away in any case.

First day of testing saw some small reliability problems but it was the fastest car in the speed trap. Later in the test the car looked stable but there were a few wobbly moments when the power went down out of slow corners which is a small concern. Red Bull is never interested in the ‘winter championship’ and they will not show their true colours until we get to Melbourne.

Testing went well enough with decent mileage and competitive times without being the quickest but we have not yet Red Bulls true colours, that will come in Australia.

Testing notes: Ricciardo 9th, Verstappen 6th. Miles completed 3184 (7th).

Ricciardo – 9/1

Verstappen – 8/1

Red Bull – 5/1

Ferrari – The return of golden era designer Rory Byrne (72) in a consultancy role. Technical Director Mattia Binotto, a former engine man, has overseen a management reshuffle. Not a lot of recruitment from outside which is a concern for a team that were so disappointing last year. Early rumours were that the new car was not hitting its targets. The pressure….that ‘must win’ pressure will only be greater this year after a poor 2016. Other rumours suggest that they have chosen a path that pushes the regulations to the very limit…and perhaps beyond, very much in the same way as Red Bull has done in the past. From what we have seen in testing the doom mongers are wide of the mark and Ferrari’s 2017 challenger is going to do just that.

The first test was very positive for Ferrari. The car was reliable, fast and looked stable under braking so rumours of problems with the aerodynamics seem to be untrue. By day three it looked the most stable and ‘planted’ car on the track. Vettel is still the main man at Ferrari but there are some that think these new F1 cars will suit Raikkonen much more than in recent years. The tyres which will now degrade but will not be so sensitive to temperature spikes which changed the characteristics of last year’s tyres quite dramatically. This may help Raikkonen who likes to push hard but was always able to keep his tyres in good shape, so he may end up being stronger later on long runs this year and with the new tyres likely to mean one less stop at each race compared to last year, that could be a valuable skill.

Ferrari and customer team, Haas, both managed to complete the first four days of testing with just one power unit so both performance and reliability are both good. It is reported that they are working on a new fuel injector system which should bring significant performance improvements in terms of improved power and lower fuel consumption…a sort of holy grail when it comes to these hybrid power units.

There is always a worry that Ferrari’s winter testing times may flatter them in an attempt to keep the heat off them back in Italy. They were fastest in pre-season testing in 2015 and 2016 and then went on to disappoint in the actual racing. Is the car really a match for Mercedes, or were they running the car on the light side? Only time will tell but rival engineers like the philosophy of this design and expect it to be a real challenger. Lewis Hamilton said that he considers Ferrari as favourites for this season, no doubt in an attempt to ramp up the pressure, but he may be proven correct.

Testing notes: Raikkonen 1st, Vettel 2nd. Miles completed 4450 (2nd).

Vettel – 9/2

Raikkonen – 12/1

Ferrari – 4/1

Force India – After a very successful 2016 we have to expect that Force India will be right in that midfield group again, somewhere behind the big three and mixing it with Williams, Toro Rosso and Renault.

As normal, Force India lives in the shadow of team boss Vijay Mallya, a man very much wanted by the Indian judiciary. How he has evaded extradition so far is almost as amazing as Force India’s performance last season. However, even if he was to be imprisoned, his team are a valuable asset and somebody would likely take it over as a going concern.

This a small team but a very well organised and talented team who have been punching above their weight for years. They have the powerful Mercedes power unit in the back of the car and that is a huge asset. Nico Hulkenberg has left to driver for Renault, replaced by Manor’s Esteban Ocon who remains a bit of an unknown quantity, but Hulkenberg will be hard to replace.

It has to be said that the new car wasn’t writing any headlines in testing. It was setting times well off the faster cars and was towards the rear of the midfield most of the time. The team have identified several problems with the car (exhaust, overweight and poor balance) and admit that that they may not be sorted out before the opening race and maybe the first two or three races have passed. Apparently the drivers have been told to get their weight down to 70kg for Melbourne, that after training like demons in the winter to put on the required muscle to handle the more powerful cars. Like all of the smaller teams this season will be tougher as the new regulations mean that in season development will be crucial and that favours the bigger, richer teams.

Testing notes: Perez 10th, Ocon 11th. Miles completed 3654 (5th).

Perez – 750/1

Ocon – 750/1

Force India – 500/1

Toro Rosso – Will work more closely with Red Bull as they both now will have the same power unit as their sister team. However the benefits of this are not likely to be seen until 2018. Toro Rosso started work on their 2017 car as far back as 2015, just revising plans as the regulations firmed up.

They have a good looking car which has been won praise for its Mercedes like appearance. It is said to be very stable under braking and turn in, good at riding the kerbs so it might be one to watch in Melbourne. The team had a few problems with the Renault power unit but believe these are solvable and that their car is capable of competing with Force India, Williams and the usual midfield contenders.

The chassis is not totally sorted yet, not helped by losing track time in the first test due to problems with the Renault power unit. The team is targeting 5th place in the championship which may be a touch ambitious for a small team in a season that will all be about development (spending loads of cash). They have retained the same driver line up and in Sainz they have a real asset, Kvyat not so much.

Testing notes: Sainz 7th, Kvyat 14th. Miles completed 2719 (9th).

Sainz – 500/1

Kvyat – 750/1

Toro Rosso – 1000/1

McLaren – A severe lack of continuity looks likely to hurt McLaren just as they needed a period of stability. Long-time boss Ron Denis was dethroned in a boardroom coup and his acolytes were also purged in a major reshuffle at the top management level, which has hurt morale amongst staff that was very loyal to Denis. The team also lost the services of Jenson Button who is replaced with the highly rated Stoffel Vandoorne, highly rated but inexperienced at this level.

There are question marks over Alonso’s real level of commitment for 2017. He has said that if the cars and racing remain boring he may pack it all in sooner rather than later. Honda needs to make serious improvements to the power unit but at least they are no longer restrained by the silly development tokens.

Honda admitted that the changes made to their PU package carry a high degree of risk, a performance boost yes, but there are question marks over reliability, something that they were already pretty poor at. The first test saw the McLaren in the garage after just one lap with an ‘oil system’ problem. Running was very limited and when it did get out on track it was slow. The body language of those present was said to be glum. By the end of the second test glum had been replaced with suicidal.

Fuel and lubricants supplier Mobil have moved to Red Bull, to be replaced by BP, who have not been in F1 for years. This maybe another problem in the short term in the least.

This could now be a very challenging season for a team that looked on the cusp of a comeback. Far too much change for my liking. They have even changed the naming of their cars. No more MP4 prefix that goes all the way back to 1981 and this year’s car will be the MCL 32. The paintwork will also change to include the original McLaren orange. Clearly the new broom is keen to sweep away all traces of Ron Denis and they are putting a lot of pressure on themselves in the process.

The first day of testing was a disaster with Alonso missing most of the day with what is believed to be a design problem with the oil tank, and the same issue hit Vandoorne’s car on his second lap on Tuesday morning. On top of that the car was amongst the slowest on display. It was said that the team then run at reduced power to get some mileage in but the car was struggling to get the power down without wheel spin kicking in and all in all, the start to the new era is every bit as bad as the last two years. An unreliable PU and a chassis that lacks downforce…….things look very grim.

Five power units were used at the first test….and the 2017 regulations only allow for four units for an entire season before penalties start kicking in. McLaren Honda must be very worried that 2017 is going to be a step back rather than forward. Could this once great team be heading the same way as Williams? No longer being one of the teams capable of winning races but running a profitable business, hiding at the back of the mid-field?

The oil tank problem is fixable before the first race but another PU failure later in the test was not diagnosed by the end of the test and was sent back to Japan for investigation. Honda is clearly worried that there is a fundamental design flaw which could derail their season before it has even started. They sacked their engine designer, Gilles Simon, on the eve of the second test which suggests there is a state of panic at Honda. The first day of the second test saw McLaren forced to change to another new PU and a sixth was required on the second day. Day three saw two stoppages for Vandoorne. Day four was even worse. Alonso didn’t hide his disappointment, saying the new power unit ‘has no power, and no reliability’. It’s 30kph down on straight line speed. They really are up shit creek without a paddle and the lack of mileage means they are already well behind in terms of chassis development, never mind the crisis at Honda.

They are more likely to be keeping Sauber company at the back of the grid rather than fighting for podiums near the front.

Testing notes: Alonso 18th, Vandoorne 17th. Miles completed 1978 (last place).

Alonso – 250/1

Vandoorne - 1000/1

McLaren – 250/1

Williams – Some key changes and not everything looks good. Pat Symonds retires early and is replaced by Mercedes Paddy Lowe who will be taking a more senior position at a smaller team as a career move. When exactly he will be allowed to join the team is not clear so there may be a period of gardening leave which will leave Symonds position vacant for a few months. Bottas was poached by Mercedes to replace Rosberg, so Williams will get a favourable power unit deal and money as compensation.

Massa retired at the end of 2016 but ‘did a Farage’ and was back before he had time to lay out his beach towel. Williams needed to have an experienced hand behind the wheel following Bottas’ move to Mercedes (as much due to their alcohol sponsor who required an over 25 year old driver to do their promo work). He will partner and mentor young Lance Stroll, the 18 year old son of a Canadian billionaire business man who has bought a substantial stake in the team.

So Williams are starting this new era of F1 with a very young pay driver, further aided by a cash injection from his father and getting a good deal from Mercedes on their power units. Cash wise they will be in a good position to deliver a dividend to shareholders…and that seems to be Williams business model these days. Solid midfielders, operating at a profit. Not very ambitious for the once best team in F1.

Bringing back Massa makes some sense in terms of continuity. Stroll plus another new driver would have been difficult but the fact remains that Massa is past it. Pat Symonds knew it and Massa’s qualifying record of just 18 – 41 vs Bottas in qualifying tells us that. The Massa-Stroll line up is not very impressive…….but it’s very cost effective and that’s what Williams are about these days.

The Team’s Sporting manager, Steve Nielsen (the guy who turned round their pit-stop performance from hilarious to the best), is leaving but will stay on while his replacement from McLaren, Dave Redding, settles in. More continuity loss.

Young Lance Stroll struggled in the first test, crashing three times and causing a full day of testing to be lost due to lack of new parts to replace the crash damage. These new and very physical cars will be a massive step up in power and performance compared to his F3 car and he will be found out, at least in the early stages.

It’s hard to get too enthusiastic about Williams. They had their chances to win races three years ago when Red Bull were out of the frame and they had the same power units as Mercedes, but they were more content to bank safe points rather than gamble to win. Point’s means pounds and that is what William’s are all about.

That said the car impressed with its pace in testing, in the hands of Massa at least, and they will be looking at being the 4th or 5th best team at the start of the season. How much money they choose to spend on development may be the key to where they are end at the end of the season. They should have a healthy war chest but it’s all about the bottom line.

Testing notes: Massa 5th, Stroll 13th. Miles completed 3724 (3rd).

Massa - 200/1

Stroll – 1000/1

Williams – 300/1

Renault – Another once great team which is trying to get back to the glory days. It’s not so long ago that this team was withering on the vine under the ownership of Geni capital. It was starved of investment in its facilities and lost a huge amount of experienced staff. Finding new staff of the right calibre takes time as experienced aerodynamists and engineers tend to come with a ‘gardening leave’ clause in existing contracts. The new engineers are coming and a manufacturing backed team is attractive to good people but it is not the work of a moment. They have poached Peter Machin from Red Bull to head up their aero department but he will not join the team until July 2017.

The engine department was never depleted to the same degree and the power unit was much improved last season and is said to be better again for 2017. It’s the chassis that will take longer to become fully competitive. The team have changed fuel and lubricant supplier to BP from Total.

There have been some changes in management but that was inevitable at a time of rebuilding but the general trend in the team is upward and they are aiming at finishing in the top five. They have a new driver in the shape of Nico Hulkenberg, surely the best F1 driver never to have scored a podium finish. He will be an asset but that podium may still be a year or two away. Joylon Palmer remains and he should continue to improve, as he did throughout 2016. Some drivers take a few years to fulfil their potential and Palmer seems like a driver that learns rather than just having a natural gift.

This season the car has been designed for the Renault power unit rather than a late compromise and this should help the chassis design. The team are aiming for mid-field respectability this season and with the necessary resources now available they should get there. Last year’s car was basically a year old chassis with a few tweaks but this is a car designed with the 2017 regulations in mind and it will be a significant improvement, built around the new and improved Renault 2017 PU.

The car is said to be comfortable to drive, predicable with good balance. There have been some niggly problems with the power unit, not as bad as the Honda PU, but enough to put a question mark over their early season reliability.

Testing notes: Hulkenberg 8th, Palmer 12th. Miles completed 2779 (8th).

Hulkenberg – 1000/1

Palmer – 1000/1

Renault – 300/1

Sauber – The first thing (only thing?) to say about Sauber is that their 2017 car will be powered by a 2016 Ferrari power unit. It wasn’t a bad power unit but the 2017 regulations have done away with the development token system and in effect the 2017 power units will be significantly re-designed and significantly more powerful as a result. They are very likely to have the least powerful power unit on the grid (Honda may actually take that undistinguished honour) and with the 2017 cars producing more downforce and a result, drag, power will be very important, especially pushing the car down any long straights. This where most of the overtaking will take place and the Sauber is likely to be a sitting duck on all but the most sinuous of circuits. Its only potential saving grace is that it will be reliable.

I do struggle to see the point of some teams being in Formula 1 as it is so expensive to run a team and the rewards for the teams at the back so poor as to make it impossible to balance the books and even be semi competitive. Manor gave up the ghost and even with new investors; Sauber will be counting every penny, limiting development, being favourite for last place and getting even less money for next season. It’s their 25th anniversary year but unless the sports new owners follow up with their plan to distribute prize money more evenly, there won’t be many more.

They have signed up the highly rated Pascal Wehrlein from the now defunct Manor team but not even a good driver can polish a turd and with a year old engine in the back, a small budget to develop the chassis, the 2017 Sauber is likely to be the steaming jobby of the field (although McLaren may offer stiff opposition in this department and will have spent ten times the money that Sauber have).

Wehrlein suffered a neck injury in the off season and missed the first pre-season test. More importantly is that his physical training was compromised due to his injury and with a premium on physical strength required to handle these faster machines, he may struggle with fatigue in the early races.

Testing notes: Wehrlein 20th, Ericsson 19th. Miles completed 3668 (4th).

Wehrlein – 3000/1

Ericsson – 3000/1

Sauber – 4000/1

Haas – It was a good debut season from the American team. Perhaps they were a little lucky early in the season but they had prepared well with the help of Ferrari. Gutierrez has been replaced with Renault reject Kevin Magnussen which should strengthen the team but he has not been entirely impressive and this must be his last chance saloon.

The team suffered with brake problems for much of 2016 and it seems that this is still an ongoing problem. Testing showed an inconsistency with different sets of brakes, one set could be fine and another not. Slow corner speed is also lacking but they hope to have new parts to address this problem in Melbourne.

Their new car impressed a number of observers and Haas are likely to be in a similar position to last year. Capable of scoring points now and again but also capable of having enough problems to struggle at times.

Reliability was generally good and the team are delighted with the new Ferrari PU which was said to be ‘amazing’ in terms of reliability and a very good increase in power. Midfield is the expectation.

Testing notes: Grosjean 16th, Magnussen 15th. Miles completed 3328 (6th).

Grosjean – 1001/1

Magnussen – 1001/1

Haas – 1500/1

Summary

The good news is that it really does look like we will have a championship worth its name in 2017. Mercedes have not suddenly become slow but the change in regulations has allowed the other teams to catch up, especially when it comes to the power units and clever designs.

The eight days of testing have seen Ferrari setting the fastest times and being very reliable but of course we do not know the amount of fuel the various cars were carrying. However we have to remember the way Mercedes operates. They can look just a little faster in free practice but when it comes to the crunch in qualifying they hit the boost button and wham! Comfortably on pole position. Have we seen the Mercedes hit that boost button in pre-season testing? Probably not.

Red Bull seems to be a little off Ferrari and Mercedes pace just now but they are the masters of leaving things to the last minute and there is no doubt that they have more performance to put on the car in Melbourne. They have the best driver line up in my opinion, followed by Ferrari and Mercedes have two good peddlers as well.

Ferrari’s best time in testing was 0.69 faster than anything Mercedes managed so if they were carrying less fuel, it would have to have been quite a lot less, around 20-25kgs. Various experts have said that historically, that is about normal for the way the two team’s work, so it may be that Mercedes are still faster by a tenth or two but that is close enough to make it games on. Of course if they were running with more fuel than the experts say….then Ferrari is indeed faster.

Of course building a faster car is no good if you do not know how use it and based on what we saw last year, Ferrari were a tactical basket case. Mama Mia race strategy compared to the smooth operators at Mercedes and the more aggressive and ambitious approach at Red Bull. Red Bull could steal a win with a slightly slower car; Ferrari could lose a race with the best car. Ferrari failed to win a single race last year, they have lost that winning habit and this could be their biggest problem. At least in Vettel and Raikkonen they have two talented and smart drivers who know how to win so hopefully they will lead the team in the right direction.

Hamilton will have other drivers in other teams to beat this year, not just his team mate, which he failed to do last year. It is understandable that he and Mercedes start the season as favourites but with the regulation changes set to shake up the pecking order we must be prepared to accept that things can be different last year. Mercedes have lost that locked in advantage which the power unit development tokens gave them. The other teams have the opportunity to be better and more competitive and at least two other team look like they are ready to take the fight to Mercedes and it will be a new game for them and Hamilton.

There is one change in the regulations which is likely to have a really big impact on the racing and that is the start procedure. Last year saw the rules changed a little to make launching the car off the grid more difficult and it did have some effect, with Mercedes especially not getting it right on occasions. Luckily their car was so superior that they usually recovered from a bad start, but that doesn’t look to be the case this season.

The new regulations will make the starts even more difficult as it will now effectively be all down to the drivers to find the optimal bite point on the clutch, just like in a normal road car. No more engine maps and so on preventing wheel spin or the car bogging down if the revs are too low. It may transpire as to which drivers are the best at race starts (I am old enough to remember the good old days of manual starts and some were clearly better than others) but some drivers race will be ruined at the start. We could see in recent seasons that the mighty Mercedes was not so dominant when it was following a car in front rather than being the car in front and there is the likelihood that they will be following a lot more often this season. Instead of a two horse race, which has been the case for the last three seasons, we have six possible race winners and championship contenders.

Hamilton has a great car, is settled at Mercedes and is very talented. He starts as the even money favourite but that is too short in my book given the changes coming in this year. His biggest weakness is dealing with not winning and if he starts to lose races that he has been used to winning, where will his head go? Bottom lip out and a bit of a strop? It wouldn’t be first time.

Vettel is a four time world champion and certainly one of the best drivers there is, smart and ruthless with it. He is trying to make Ferrari his team in the same way that Schumacher did. The new car looks to be quick enough to allow him to race at the front again and his biggest weakness is how Ferrari operates at the race track. Schumacher was a great driver but he couldn’t have done all he did without the great support he had on the pit wall. A good race strategist is worth their weight in gold and you don’t associate Ferrari with good strategy.

Red Bull is blessed with two fantastic drivers. Ricciardo is still a little under rated by many but he saw off Vettel when they were at Red Bull together and we know how good Vettel is. He has more experience than young Max Verstappen but the young Dutchman has something the others don’t……genius. Verstappen is the most talented driver to arrive in Formula 1 since Senna….and he is only going to get better.

During testing many drivers complained that the new cars made overtaking very difficult….not young Max, he said it was no different last year, no big problem. He has little fear and massive confidence is his abilities, and he is very able. Yes he lacks some experience and he might need another year before he is fully matured but exceptional talents can do exceptional things and I expect Verstappen to be a breath of fresh air and might just lead F1 into its brave new world. He certainly is the sports next superstar.

Bottas has gotten his hands on a Silver Arrow and has one year to show the world what he has really got. He entered the sport with many rave reviews, the usual thing, champion elect etc. and he has impressed at times but it’s hard to really judge a driver who is in a car that isn’t capable of winning races. Has he done anything earth shattering, such as Verstappen’s race in Brazil last year? Not in my eyes and he is up against a very good team mate and he has had very little time to settle in, having only joined Mercedes in January. He can and will win races, which won’t go down well with Hamilton, but it’s rare for someone to join a new team and win the championship in the first year.

The final driver who looks capable of winning races is the veteran, Kimi Raikkonen. He likes these new cars, he likes the new tyres and he is well settled at Ferrari. He is also happy off the track with a new partner and a growing family. Kimi is quick and gifted, great with his tyres and a proven winner. Sadly he is up against the ruthless Vettel who is a political beast as well as a fast driver and the German will be doing all he can to get favourable treatment. I expect a good season from Kimi but surely Ferrari want the younger man to take them forward?

The Mercedes duo’s odds look a little short in the betting and value looks to rest with Vettel and the two Red Bull drivers. At least the more competitive nature of pre-season testing has allowed (most of) the bookmakers to offer e/w terms on the top three drivers so we can back two and hope that they can at least get placed if not actually win the big prize.

2 points e/w Sebastian Vettel to win the World Drivers Championship @ 4/1 generally available

2 points e/w Max Verstappen to win the World Drivers Championship @ 8/1 with Boylesports, Betway, Stan James

Hopefully this week will see a few firms price up some seasonal match bets and when they do there will be an additional preview to look at anything interesting that on offer.